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DSI Infrastructures & Labs are shareable infrastructures or structural vessels for creating collaborative research environments related to digital transformation. Prof. Dr. Oliver Strijbis briefly introduces PREMIA, one of the latest projects in this series.
How do you explain PREMIA in three sentences?
PREMIA is an open environment for the research community in Zurich to predict socially relevant phenomena. The project includes a prediction market with integrated trading algorithms that combines human expertise with artificial intelligence. Prediction markets can be applied to almost any significant event that occurs in the short to medium term.
Which forecast markets are currently in focus?
Currently, for example, there is a prediction market for the flight-related CO2 emissions of the University of Zurich, on which members of the university trade shares on the scenario of whether or not the university achieves its reduction target of 40%. The resulting forecast can be viewed on our project website. It currently states that the university will not achieve its target in the first half of 2023.
In which thematic market do you see the greatest potential for the future?
In addition to the prediction market on CO2 emissions, we have a market on geopolitical events, which has already attracted some interest. Soon, we will also launch a market on the 2023 federal elections. Here, especially our predictions on the elections to the Council of States in the individual cantons will be of importance for research and the public. All members of the University of Zurich are invited to participate by registering here: thepredictionmarket.com/new_user
You can find more information about PREMIA here.
All projects of the series «DSI Infrastructures & Labs» can be found here.
Prof. Dr. Oliver Strijbis
Oliver Strijbis is part of the project team of «PREMIA», SNF Assistant Professor for Political Science at the University of Zurich and an affiliated Professor of Politics at the Franklin University Switzerland. He is head of the research project «The Effect of Campaign Events on Direct Democratic Decisions: Evidence from Prediction Markets». His research focuses on prediction markets, political behavior, migration, and nationalism.
